BTC Analysis: Will Symmetrical Triangle Worsen Losses or Reignite the Rally?

Recap

After the Bitcoin bulls failed to capitalise on the market’s indecision in the 45.5 – 51.5k range, the price tumbled towards the 30k region.

The Bears have set a strong resistance at 39.5k as shown by the Spinning Top candlesticks near said price point.

1D BTC Chart Outlook

From the ATH at 64.73k, BTC’s price saw a Bearish Impulse Wave (Yellow 12345) that sunk its price to 30k.

This was expected given the Bearish Divergence on the MACD and RSI observed since the beginning of March.

As the Bulls struggle to find a close above or near 40k, we should observe the following things:

• Formation of a Symmetrical Triangle (Purple).
• Corrective Waves (Blue ABC).
• Positive Divergence on the MACD and RSI.

4H Chart Outlook

Here we can spot a bounce on the 50% Fib Retracement Level from December’s rally.

The Bulls must reclaim the local 50 and 61.8% Fib Levels (Purple Rectangle) before attempting to clear the 39K resistance (Green Line).

That being said, please note:

• RSI moving towards 50 (Neutral).
• MACD gaining momentum towards the Bullish zone.
• EMA10 crossing above the MA20.

Dead Cat Bounce or Golden Bull Run Reset?

Here’s where things get tricky.

A Symmetrical Triangle is a continuation pattern, meaning it represents a period of consolidation before the price is forced to break out or break down.

On the Waves side of things, this uncertainty can be played out by a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.

Should the next set of Waves (12345) be Bullish then a rally towards 51k seems plausible?

On the flip side, we could see BTC’s price sinking further towards 20k.