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Price Analysis

BTC Freefalling, Road back to $14k?




After a spectacular two months, it appears that the Bitcoin uptrend is coming to an end.

If candlestick arrangement guides, bears are in control.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Overview

At the time of writing (Dec 11), the Bitcoin price was down seven percent in the last week of trading.

However, there are hints of stability on the last day. In lower time frames, the coin has gained ground versus the greenback, paring losses.

Meanwhile, BTC is up against ETH in the past 24 hours and week-to-date.

Bitcoin (BTC) Market Movers

While there are buoying fundamentals – as gleaned from newsreels, the uptrend is shaky. There are concerns that Bitcoin bulls are now exhausted, unable to sustain higher prices explaining the free-falling prices of the past few days.

Weakness is glaring despite an endorsement from heavyweights.

Fidelity Digital –in partnership with BlockFi, now allows clients to access cash loans with Bitcoin as collateral.

Meanwhile, MassMutual, one of the largest insurance firms in the United States, bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin through the New York-based NYDIG.

If anything, this was the biggest stamp of approval considering how conservative insurance firms are. They appear confident on Bitcoin’s prospects and buying straight from the general investment accounts that reportedly has $249 billion.

Even so, Bitcoin prices remain in the red.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction

From the daily chart, the Bitcoin price is trading below the middle BB for the first time in over two months. Daily bitcoin chart, december 2020

Beyond that, the Bitcoin bears are also on the brink of breaking below the main support trend line of the bull flag.

Bitcoin bears are also on the brink of breaking below the main support

Pasting the Fibonacci retracement tool between the recent swing low and high, there is a risk of the BTC/USD pair sliding back to within the 50 and 61.8 percent levels of between $14k and $16k; or back towards the main multi-month support trend line between March and September 2020.

There are even heavier hints in the weekly chart.

weekly bitcoin chart december 2020

While two days remain before it closes, a double-bar bullish reversal pattern will inevitably form right from around the coin’s all-time high. Besides the conspicuous bear candlestick, upward momentum is fading since the RSI is at overbought territory.

If this bar closes with considerably high trading volumes–whose averages exceed those of the past few candlesticks, especially last weeks, it could mark the beginning of a correction lower towards $16k, or worse back to Aug 2020 highs of $12.5k.

$12.5k is the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the Oct to Nov trade range.

Historically, Bitcoin corrections are deeper, often forcing prices back to around the 78.6 percent Fibonacci levels as seen before, for instance, in 2018 when BTC fell to $3.2k.

Chart Courtesy of Trading View

Disclaimer:  Opinions are those of the author, and are not financial advice. Do your research.

Passionate about Blockchain, Crypto, Blockchain, and Bitcoin. Excited of what lies ahead. Advocating adoption. HODLer!