Bitcoin prices gained on Friday after posting deep, worrying losses for the better part of the week.
The problem is, it is too early to call bottoms. Those fading the primary trend—even with solid fundamentals—may be trying to catch a falling knife.
The same knife has been hot for all that we know, and support levels have been melting like butter.
Still, there is hope for traders and investors from a fundamental perspective.
Bitcoin Market Performance and Price Status
The push higher is institutionally driven.
Nonetheless, it should be noted that there is policy development in the U.S. especially that may dent buyers’ momentum.
The signing into law of the infrastructure bill with disastrous, ambiguous wordings may demand even more compliance from crypto players.
The IRS and the government will immensely benefit from the twirls of the industry, raising extra revenue.
Even so, this isn’t preventing adoption, especially by Twitter and Jack Dorsey–whose two companies continue to embrace cryptocurrencies, acknowledging its capabilities.
Glancing at the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index indicator, traders are generally apprehensive.
This is understandable considering sharp losses of prices from early this week coinciding with the fundamental event in the U.S.
At around 34, the Fear reading is not at critical levels to warrant a fading signal as weak hands liquidate en mass.
Readings below 10 make for ideal areas of loading the dips and countering the primary trend in anticipation of market corrections.
The sentimental side in Bitcoin trading is critical because of the hype element associated with the currency and enforced by influencers. For example, President Nayib Bukele and El Salvador, have been doubling down on dips. On the other hand, Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy have been aggressively and consistently loading the dips to be the largest BTC holders in the world.
Bitcoin Close above $59k Marks the Local Bottom
Despite these developments, one trader on Twitter is adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Per his analysis, BTC bears would have had their run if BTC prices closed above $59k, effectively marking a local bottom.
#Bitcoin is at resistance and the weekend is here.
Not a scenario I like, so I will wait for price to break above 59k and confirm the deviation to call this a local bottom. pic.twitter.com/WgzlTQKhNL
— Inmortal (@inmortalcrypto) November 19, 2021
As it is, sellers are, as the analyst picks out, in a bear trend.
As mentioned earlier, sellers are in a commanding position, trading in a bear breakout pattern with increasing volumes.
The confirmation of November 19 gains over the weekend and rejection of lower prices below $55k might be an assurance for buyers but not a signal to double down.
Are HODLers Buying the Dip?
Even with the general apprehension and patience, Willy Woo, a Bitcoin on-chain analyst, says HODLers are ramping up, re-loading on these dips.
I think I’ll call this one “buying the dip” pic.twitter.com/57kmAtycGF
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2021
Other traders have backed the observation by Willy even with the continued high leverage amongst traders.
Don't be fooled by volatile short term price movements.
Coins are shifting to stronger hands 💪.
— 3 Capital (🔑)³ (@IIICapital) November 16, 2021
Nonetheless, some traders and analysts are against his overview, even with high inflation and the flow of capital from regulated institutions to Bitcoin derivatives.
Worldwide interest in hyperinflation testing all time high resistance. Levels unseen since the 2008 world financial crisis. pic.twitter.com/2B6Gh99sow
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2021
Bitcoin Price will continue Rising
Even so, the shake-out isn’t forcing liquidation, according to one trader on Twitter.
Instead, per his analysis of the BTCUSDT monthly chart, the coin will continue charting higher as history repeats itself.
This #bitcoin cycle has not had diminishing returns compared to last cycle yet, imo.
-2017 Bear Market Low to Mid Cycle Peak 1706% Gain
-2021 Bear Market Low to Mid Cycle Peak 1978% Gain
Seems like 2017 price was playing catchup to the trend line vs 2021, we'll see how it ends. pic.twitter.com/dGtBlRfuBy
— Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson) November 19, 2021
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is at over $250k in the coming months in continuation of the uptrend.
Charts courtesy of Trading View
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
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